From Prototype to Impact: Why the “Valley of Death” in Defence Innovation Is a Leadership Challenge

By Dennis Tanke Jens Weichel

Maritime security needs more than good technology

Many technologies that could strengthen maritime security and resilience do not fail because they do not work. They fail in the gap between prototype, financing and initial procurement.

  • No order, no capital.
  • No capital, no production readiness.
  • No production readiness, no order.

This dilemma is often referred to as the “valley of death” in innovation. It describes the critical stage between an initial working solution and a product that can be reliably tested, manufactured, procured and deployed. This gap is particularly relevant in the maritime sector. Sensors for monitoring ports and sea lanes, autonomous systems, drones, communications solutions and technologies that protect critical infrastructure can all make an important contribution to security and defence capability. But good technology alone does not create an operational capability.

This challenge was the focus of a Mercuri Urval (MU) panel event at SMM in Hamburg. Moderated by Jens Weichel, the panel brought together Karsten Knecht, Captain in the German Navy and Head of Naval Innovation Management; Marcia Mimura of TechHub SVI Nord; Thomas Köhler, COO of IABG; and Eugene Ciemnyjewski, CEO of EUROATLAS. The event was hosted by Dennis Tanke, Global Practice Lead Defence and Partner at MU.

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The central insight was clear: Germany does not primarily lack ideas. Too often, it lacks a clear and financeable path from idea to application.

We are operating within a broader system that needs to be coordinated as a whole.
- Dennis Tanke, Global Practice Lead Defence and Partner at MU

The bottleneck lies between prototype and deployment

A prototype demonstrates that technology can work in principle. But before it can be deployed on a scale, further questions must be answered. Can the solution perform under realistic conditions? Does it meet security and integration requirements? Are key components available? Can production be scaled up?

This stage requires capital. Start-ups and specialised SMEs must finance further development, testing, supply chains and industrialisation—often before they have secured a binding order.

Investors are therefore right to ask whether there is a clear operational need and a credible outlook for demand. Public-sector buyers, meanwhile, are often only able to place binding orders once a solution has reached sufficient maturity and can be reliably delivered.

None of this achieves anything—not even the showcase—unless someone commits and says: ‘I’m going to order a few of these now.’ - Thomas Köhler, COO, IABG

The aim is not to procure every new technology at an early stage. It is to give promising solutions a credible path forward: from operational testing and initial procurement through to potential scale-up.

Test, decide, scale

The German Navy is developing new approaches to identify relevant technologies earlier and test them under realistic conditions. Technology-neutral challenges, operational trials and smaller initial procurements can help organisations learn faster and assess risks more effectively.

Innovation is when it reaches the troops. - Karsten Knecht, Captain in the German Navy and Head of Naval Innovation Management

What matters, however, is that each trial leads to a decision: further development, procure or discontinue. Only then can testing become an effective tool for innovation and procurement.

Intermediary structures such as TechHub SVI Nord also play an important role. Many relevant technologies emerge outside traditional defence structures—in research, healthcare, logistics, energy or civilian shipping. The task is to connect specific operational needs with suitable technological solutions.

We now need to make a concerted effort to build connections so that we can ultimately bring the best products into the Navy.
- Marcia Mimura, TechHub SVI Nord

Start-ups and established industry must work together

New technologies often emerge from start-ups, SMEs or research projects. Turning them into robust, integrated capabilities that can be delivered and supported over the long term, however, often requires the experience of established industry partners – in systems integration, manufacturing, supply chains, quality assurance and service.

These strengths should not be set against one another.

We need to take great care that start-ups and established industry do not become overly competitive with one another. On the contrary, we should aim to bring together the best of both sides. - Eugene Ciemnyjewski, CEO, EUROATLAS

This requires clear and fair collaboration models. Roles, intellectual property, data access, responsibility for testing and the commercial prospects of future scaling all need to be agreed at an early stage.

An innovation fund can help—but leadership determines its impact

An innovation fund for defence and dual-use technologies could help finance the critical stage between prototype and initial procurement. For hardware-intensive solutions in particular, capital requirements and development timelines are substantial, while private investors may remain cautious when procurement prospects are uncertain. However, such a fund would not replace clear requirements, faster trials or more reliable procurement signals. It would only be effective if it were linked to these elements.

This makes one point clear: the valley of death is not only a financing or procurement issue. It is a leadership challenge.

Leadership must align different interests and decision-making logics around a common outcome. It must set priorities, clarify responsibilities, create space for controlled testing and turn dialogue into firm next steps.

If we can bring together people from the different organisations who can make this happen—people who can talk to one another even when their views differ – we will have achieved a great deal. - Dennis Tanke, Global Practice Lead Defence and Partner at MU

Maritime defence capability does not emerge from technology alone. It emerges when the Navy, industry, start-ups, research institutions, investors and public-sector actors take shared responsibility for moving from ideas to application.

Innovation does not count when it is presented. It counts when it reaches the place where it is needed.